* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/06/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 31 33 37 41 40 40 40 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 31 33 37 41 40 40 40 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 32 32 31 32 34 36 37 37 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 15 13 9 9 11 13 16 18 17 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 1 0 -4 -8 -8 -6 -2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 103 104 115 102 47 28 2 349 3 12 22 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 140 140 142 146 146 146 146 149 149 148 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 51 50 49 49 44 46 45 45 46 50 55 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 17 24 23 8 14 9 9 10 13 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 37 9 -35 -38 -3 -62 -41 -28 -11 1 -11 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2295 2281 2268 2259 2250 2220 2143 2064 1987 1913 1819 1745 1700 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.5 134.7 134.9 135.1 135.3 135.9 136.8 137.8 138.8 139.8 141.0 142.1 143.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 26 25 32 28 24 22 24 27 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 2. 6. 5. 5. 5. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 134.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/06/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -28.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.17 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.3% 9.0% 8.5% 6.3% 14.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.1% 4.7% 4.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 2.3% 2.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/06/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##