* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/06/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 34 37 41 42 44 44 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 34 37 41 42 44 44 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 30 31 33 36 39 41 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 15 15 15 13 7 8 10 11 15 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 3 1 0 -2 -6 -8 -7 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 132 130 104 105 116 59 22 11 358 4 20 25 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 141 142 144 146 145 145 145 146 146 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 53 50 50 45 45 44 43 45 49 54 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 22 18 20 23 15 14 11 14 14 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 70 28 4 -18 -6 -30 -33 -30 -11 -6 -47 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2281 2256 2232 2221 2211 2201 2133 2069 1977 1916 1853 1804 1765 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.1 9.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.0 135.3 135.5 135.7 136.0 136.9 137.8 138.9 139.7 140.4 141.1 141.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 24 26 26 28 31 27 23 21 22 25 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. 33. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 134.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/06/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.5% 10.7% 9.5% 6.9% 15.3% 14.7% 14.6% Logistic: 0.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.4% 3.9% 3.2% 2.4% 5.1% 4.9% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 3.2% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 2.5% 2.9% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/06/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##