* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/06/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 27 28 31 34 35 37 38 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 27 28 31 34 35 37 38 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 26 24 24 26 28 31 34 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 16 16 15 8 9 12 12 11 15 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 4 4 1 -1 -6 -7 -8 -4 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 125 118 106 106 86 36 19 22 14 27 32 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 140 140 143 146 146 145 144 145 144 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 56 53 52 49 46 47 45 45 47 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 20 21 18 22 16 18 13 14 13 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 52 42 18 1 -31 -30 -57 -28 -30 -5 2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2313 2296 2279 2273 2266 2250 2201 2133 2078 2000 1907 1840 1806 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.2 11.7 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.2 134.5 134.7 134.9 135.0 135.4 136.1 136.9 137.7 138.6 139.6 140.4 141.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 23 24 26 28 32 27 23 20 22 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -4. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 134.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/06/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -9.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/06/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##