* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/05/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 30 28 27 30 32 34 35 36 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 30 28 27 30 32 34 35 36 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 24 23 24 26 29 31 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 16 16 12 7 9 13 12 17 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 4 4 1 0 -3 -5 -7 -7 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 116 118 125 115 108 116 49 24 17 2 10 32 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 138 139 142 144 146 145 144 144 144 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 58 55 51 47 47 46 45 45 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 11 20 21 21 21 23 18 17 13 14 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 51 46 33 22 -13 -26 -55 -56 -23 -8 13 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2346 2309 2272 2261 2249 2226 2196 2147 2072 1973 1886 1828 1813 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.0 11.6 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.2 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.5 136.0 136.7 137.6 138.7 139.7 140.4 140.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 16 19 23 24 26 31 28 23 21 22 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 133.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/05/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.16 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -12.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/05/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##