* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/05/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 34 35 37 38 38 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 36 34 35 37 38 38 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 35 33 31 31 34 37 39 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 18 16 14 6 11 10 13 18 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 3 2 3 2 -3 -5 -4 -7 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 125 119 118 122 112 112 71 38 29 14 17 33 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 136 138 140 143 146 146 145 144 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 57 56 52 50 44 46 44 44 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 5 8 17 14 12 17 11 21 7 12 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 48 43 32 13 -14 -16 -36 -74 -34 -44 -10 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2382 2333 2285 2270 2256 2238 2215 2176 2119 2054 1963 1889 1819 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.4 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.4 133.9 134.4 134.6 134.8 135.2 135.7 136.3 137.1 137.9 138.8 139.6 140.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 15 17 22 26 28 31 26 22 21 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.3 133.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/05/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.56 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.0% 11.0% 9.5% 7.0% 14.2% 13.7% 13.3% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.1% 3.8% 3.2% 2.4% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 3.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/05/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##