* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/05/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 33 32 32 33 34 33 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 33 32 32 33 34 33 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 35 32 30 29 29 30 32 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 13 13 14 5 10 9 12 15 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 3 5 8 0 -4 -6 -5 -9 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 136 137 136 122 117 117 113 37 40 19 12 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 136 137 137 138 139 141 144 143 143 145 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 54 56 57 52 47 48 46 44 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -1 1 4 6 15 14 14 15 16 8 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 23 34 31 19 -8 -24 -45 -46 -60 -26 -18 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2417 2416 2351 2323 2295 2261 2238 2201 2137 2079 2032 1961 1892 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.1 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.4 133.0 133.6 134.0 134.3 134.8 135.2 135.8 136.6 137.3 137.9 138.7 139.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 10 15 21 26 26 25 22 22 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.4 132.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/05/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.56 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 15.1% 12.2% 10.5% 7.8% 15.0% 13.6% 12.2% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.6% 4.3% 3.5% 2.6% 5.0% 4.5% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.8% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/05/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##