* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/05/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 40 38 36 34 33 33 32 31 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 40 38 36 34 33 33 32 31 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 39 36 33 31 30 31 32 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 13 15 18 11 3 10 16 21 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 0 5 5 -2 -9 -10 -11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 128 134 129 115 111 107 127 72 12 353 350 352 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 134 134 136 137 138 139 141 142 142 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 51 51 54 50 47 44 45 45 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -9 -4 -5 -3 9 11 19 17 24 12 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 26 18 28 14 -3 -29 -48 -46 -46 -30 -30 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2378 2417 2416 2382 2348 2295 2261 2238 2177 2132 2088 2031 1960 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.7 132.4 133.0 133.4 133.7 134.3 134.8 135.2 135.9 136.5 137.1 137.8 138.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 7 7 8 10 15 21 26 25 24 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.2 131.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/05/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.55 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 17.0% 13.7% 11.8% 8.6% 16.3% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.5% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.4% 4.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.7% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.7% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/05/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##