* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/04/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 40 39 37 35 34 35 35 34 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 40 39 37 35 34 35 35 34 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 41 40 37 34 32 31 32 34 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 17 15 6 8 11 18 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 4 0 2 4 -1 -6 -8 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 121 127 127 115 112 120 140 16 6 2 352 354 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 136 135 134 137 138 140 141 143 143 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 57 54 55 54 50 46 47 45 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -17 -12 -6 -4 5 12 16 21 26 25 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 23 22 17 38 5 -17 -34 -52 -52 -24 -20 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2356 2386 2417 2455 2407 2339 2305 2282 2231 2186 2152 2094 2014 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.1 12.7 12.3 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.8 131.5 132.1 132.7 133.2 133.9 134.4 134.8 135.5 136.1 136.5 137.2 138.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 13 8 9 14 20 23 27 26 26 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.6 130.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/04/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.57 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -20.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.07 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 16.0% 13.6% 11.6% 8.9% 16.1% 14.0% 11.5% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.5% 4.6% 3.9% 3.0% 5.4% 4.7% 3.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 3.7% 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/04/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##