* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/04/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 35 34 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 35 34 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 31 29 27 25 25 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 14 13 18 22 10 5 16 15 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 2 0 -6 -7 -6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 124 121 116 118 100 112 138 15 19 28 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 135 134 135 137 138 138 140 141 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 58 57 55 55 51 50 48 46 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -14 -17 -11 -4 0 7 14 19 19 25 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 37 19 12 15 22 -2 -22 -44 -25 -42 -26 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2335 2355 2378 2405 2433 2368 2329 2291 2278 2251 2201 2157 2118 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.1 11.8 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.2 130.9 131.5 132.1 132.7 133.5 134.0 134.5 134.8 135.2 135.7 136.3 137.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 19 19 10 7 8 14 19 23 26 26 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.3 130.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/04/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -28.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.17 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 13.9% 11.6% 10.2% 7.7% 14.6% 13.2% 11.5% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.1% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.0% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 2.4% 2.7% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/04/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##