* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/16/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 50 61 65 67 61 63 60 60 58 56 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 50 61 65 67 61 63 60 60 58 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 34 39 43 44 43 40 40 39 38 37 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 16 17 21 18 20 22 26 21 17 11 11 6 3 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 4 5 0 9 7 1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 39 42 43 54 47 63 75 70 70 79 102 106 121 112 110 67 226 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.8 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.4 25.7 25.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 156 155 157 156 157 163 158 156 152 146 140 135 126 118 114 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 84 84 82 82 82 80 80 78 74 73 70 65 61 59 53 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 12 12 15 18 21 22 23 20 22 21 22 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 26 18 29 33 35 55 57 61 70 77 79 66 60 51 45 200 MB DIV 93 96 101 118 111 93 80 63 48 44 46 0 -8 14 -11 -43 -30 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -11 -12 -16 -11 -12 -5 -13 -6 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 674 681 699 685 663 646 669 725 784 776 793 846 889 937 994 1019 1076 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.0 104.7 105.4 105.9 107.2 108.7 110.3 111.9 113.6 115.1 116.5 117.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 33 37 41 42 36 31 28 22 18 14 10 7 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 36. 36. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -9. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 15. 17. 19. 14. 16. 13. 13. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 25. 36. 40. 42. 36. 38. 35. 35. 33. 31. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 103.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/16/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.2% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.4% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 6.5% 0.6% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/16/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##