* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/26/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 27 29 32 37 42 48 48 48 48 50 53 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 27 29 32 37 42 48 48 48 43 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 24 26 27 28 29 30 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 9 9 10 16 19 10 17 14 14 9 12 13 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 6 2 0 2 0 -2 -4 -2 1 1 -3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 83 85 118 121 93 91 68 19 20 38 26 357 314 293 304 300 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 30.8 30.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 146 148 147 148 148 149 150 154 157 160 163 163 172 166 161 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 8 6 10 700-500 MB RH 76 74 75 74 74 77 78 79 81 84 82 85 85 84 81 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 11 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 62 59 54 35 32 27 24 7 14 15 20 37 25 25 34 30 39 200 MB DIV 72 84 36 2 19 45 63 73 114 125 135 107 102 99 77 55 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 0 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 524 509 508 509 521 540 569 632 629 586 485 353 159 -14 -135 -252 -177 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.4 10.0 10.0 10.4 11.4 12.8 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.3 93.7 94.1 94.5 95.1 95.4 95.9 96.3 96.9 97.5 98.0 98.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 3 3 5 6 9 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 18 19 21 23 23 23 24 27 32 38 40 34 22 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 42. 43. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -5. -3. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 23. 23. 23. 23. 25. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 92.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/26/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.30 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 8.9% 2.4% 1.3% 0.1% 5.5% 1.6% 8.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.4% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% 6.4% 5.0% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: .1% 4.2% 2.4% .2% 0% 3.2% 2.5% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/26/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##