* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/25/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 22 24 26 28 35 40 46 49 53 53 54 57 60 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 22 24 26 28 35 40 46 49 53 42 32 28 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 20 19 19 19 20 22 24 26 29 27 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 12 10 15 17 17 11 14 15 9 8 10 9 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 7 7 5 -1 2 -1 -4 -5 -2 0 0 -1 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 62 81 83 98 90 94 70 36 5 27 7 351 264 283 282 271 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.7 29.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 143 145 147 149 148 148 148 154 160 161 165 166 172 165 161 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 75 75 77 77 79 83 86 85 86 86 85 83 78 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 11 11 10 9 8 10 12 14 14 15 14 14 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 61 55 46 39 31 42 33 39 45 40 33 51 44 55 71 200 MB DIV 41 69 89 39 4 35 69 89 101 118 168 140 111 117 121 64 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 538 512 489 474 469 465 477 514 547 533 408 286 120 -52 -148 -179 20 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.5 10.5 10.9 12.0 13.4 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.5 92.8 93.2 93.5 94.0 94.4 94.7 95.2 95.9 96.8 97.9 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 4 4 2 2 2 3 6 8 10 12 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 18 19 21 22 22 23 27 34 38 42 28 16 14 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 25. 30. 34. 38. 40. 42. 43. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -7. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -5. -4. 0. -1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 10. 15. 21. 24. 28. 28. 29. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 92.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/25/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 4.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 3.7% 4.0% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 2.8% 1.2% .1% 0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/25/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##