* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 30 33 34 36 40 44 48 49 48 50 52 55 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 30 33 34 36 40 44 48 49 48 50 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 26 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 31 33 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 13 11 11 11 18 20 11 19 13 16 4 8 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 9 7 9 8 0 -1 1 0 -3 -3 -2 1 4 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 53 47 56 71 80 107 100 90 68 16 20 28 20 29 262 265 305 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.6 29.1 29.6 29.8 30.1 29.9 30.3 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 141 146 150 151 153 152 147 153 159 163 167 164 168 165 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 73 74 76 76 77 79 82 85 84 85 86 89 85 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 11 13 12 10 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 56 53 53 47 50 39 23 17 8 10 7 14 20 24 33 39 32 200 MB DIV 31 45 62 72 28 9 41 74 102 130 145 126 115 87 103 113 74 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 -2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 582 571 552 538 528 508 520 544 595 631 623 546 399 208 13 -91 -192 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.5 10.9 10.8 10.3 10.0 10.2 11.1 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.7 93.1 93.5 93.9 94.6 95.3 95.9 96.4 97.0 97.8 98.4 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 5 6 11 11 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 17 18 22 26 27 26 26 28 32 39 39 34 22 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. 41. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -5. -1. -2. -5. -4. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -0. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 18. 20. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.8 92.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.12 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.3% 6.9% 4.6% 0.0% 10.3% 12.1% 11.4% Logistic: 0.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.2% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 3.6% 4.2% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 2.6% 1.2% .8% 0% 1.8% 2.6% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##