* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/25/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 31 34 37 39 47 52 57 58 62 65 67 68 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 31 34 37 39 47 52 57 58 62 65 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 30 33 37 40 43 47 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 11 12 9 11 17 17 13 12 20 12 8 2 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 13 12 10 10 4 0 1 2 0 -2 0 0 3 3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 68 58 56 65 74 92 96 92 79 56 17 32 5 3 311 230 286 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.2 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 141 143 151 152 153 154 152 151 158 162 166 167 169 164 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 4 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 78 75 76 77 77 79 82 87 86 85 88 86 82 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 10 12 15 15 19 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 59 56 56 49 49 44 35 18 26 13 27 27 27 34 56 60 72 200 MB DIV 62 62 61 55 58 -9 19 55 87 126 127 176 149 108 84 117 60 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 569 560 536 514 509 495 499 517 554 584 600 542 421 251 27 -156 -134 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.4 10.9 11.1 10.7 10.4 10.3 11.0 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.2 92.6 92.9 93.3 94.2 95.0 95.5 96.0 96.5 97.2 98.0 98.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 2 3 3 4 6 10 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 17 17 21 25 27 27 27 28 31 38 39 35 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 40. 41. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -11. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -4. -2. 3. 2. 6. 6. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 4. 7. 9. 17. 22. 27. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.8 91.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/25/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.09 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.9% 6.4% 4.2% 0.0% 9.4% 10.9% 10.9% Logistic: 0.4% 4.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.4% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.4% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 3.6% 3.8% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 2.7% 1.2% .8% 0% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/25/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##