* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/25/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 34 38 42 45 48 55 59 60 64 67 68 69 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 34 38 42 45 48 55 59 60 64 67 44 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 35 39 41 44 49 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 10 12 5 10 12 14 14 12 21 11 12 1 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 13 10 7 7 0 0 1 -1 -4 -2 0 2 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 79 80 75 77 78 77 113 102 90 55 30 28 30 338 291 257 269 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.7 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 145 145 150 152 151 153 148 145 149 161 165 167 170 165 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -51.8 -52.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 5 4 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 78 76 76 77 77 79 82 85 82 86 86 84 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 12 15 15 18 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 64 71 70 65 58 59 53 36 35 11 14 12 32 39 33 46 58 200 MB DIV 76 65 60 45 36 18 5 42 75 92 109 165 163 125 102 101 89 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 491 489 479 453 454 454 468 506 569 630 651 621 474 284 71 -141 -300 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.5 10.8 10.9 10.6 10.0 9.8 10.1 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.5 91.9 92.3 92.7 93.6 94.4 95.1 95.7 96.1 96.5 97.1 97.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 5 9 12 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 17 17 20 23 25 25 24 24 27 33 39 40 22 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -8. -5. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 9. 7. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 25. 29. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.3 91.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/25/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.21 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.6% 8.1% 5.8% 0.0% 11.5% 12.6% 11.9% Logistic: 0.7% 6.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1.3% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 6.2% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 4.7% 4.6% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 3.6% 2.2% 1.1% 0% 2.3% 2.8% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/25/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##