* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 34 39 44 47 49 54 57 61 60 64 66 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 34 39 44 47 49 54 57 61 60 64 45 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 30 31 32 34 37 42 48 53 59 45 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 12 13 11 6 14 17 12 9 11 14 5 1 2 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 9 13 13 10 9 3 -3 -1 0 -3 -6 -1 4 3 6 -3 SHEAR DIR 71 95 68 70 80 82 85 80 93 62 47 19 39 347 60 223 225 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 143 144 146 152 154 154 154 156 159 162 165 165 169 168 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 4 5 4 5 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 77 77 78 78 79 83 84 89 88 89 88 86 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 9 10 12 10 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 67 71 67 61 50 55 39 49 34 51 52 49 61 78 89 200 MB DIV 103 76 65 63 45 61 19 34 68 60 129 128 139 135 156 120 104 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 516 519 514 502 464 441 425 421 417 439 429 388 296 200 61 -87 -206 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.2 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.2 91.6 92.0 92.3 92.9 93.8 94.5 94.9 95.2 95.5 96.0 96.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 2 1 2 4 6 9 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 16 17 18 22 26 28 29 30 32 35 36 41 25 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -3. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 19. 24. 27. 31. 30. 34. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 90.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.23 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 11.8% 8.7% 6.5% 0.0% 11.4% 12.1% 11.7% Logistic: 0.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 5.1% 3.3% 2.3% 0.0% 4.1% 4.2% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 3.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0% 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##