* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 41 46 50 51 53 57 61 62 61 61 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 41 46 50 51 53 57 61 62 61 61 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 36 36 37 39 41 44 47 51 54 57 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 5 10 13 4 7 13 15 16 9 16 8 11 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 10 15 16 9 8 -2 -1 1 0 -5 -2 -2 2 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 86 92 104 74 71 78 61 110 94 90 60 15 27 18 25 196 245 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.7 30.0 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 145 145 147 149 152 153 152 151 151 154 161 166 163 168 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 3 5 4 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 78 76 77 76 76 77 78 81 82 85 86 88 87 88 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 8 8 10 13 13 11 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 64 62 59 62 68 65 51 50 36 21 19 15 32 38 37 41 69 200 MB DIV 104 99 74 61 42 15 26 18 45 51 99 124 161 176 145 158 110 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -8 -4 0 LAND (KM) 489 519 524 516 511 472 478 487 513 545 563 562 512 405 234 38 -144 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.6 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.5 91.0 91.4 91.8 92.6 93.5 94.4 95.2 95.8 96.2 96.6 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 3 5 8 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 15 15 17 19 22 26 27 27 28 32 37 39 38 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -3. -0. 1. -1. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 20. 21. 23. 27. 31. 32. 31. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.9 90.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.32 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 15.3% 11.6% 9.2% 0.0% 13.6% 13.0% 12.2% Logistic: 1.0% 8.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.0% 2.1% 0.5% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.9% 4.9% 3.5% 0.0% 5.2% 4.5% 6.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.2% 4.9% 2.9% 2.2% 0% 2.6% 2.7% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##