* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 47 51 52 53 53 56 59 62 62 63 65 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 47 51 52 53 53 56 59 62 62 63 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 39 42 44 45 45 45 46 47 49 52 56 61 64 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 6 6 10 13 13 13 17 20 16 14 10 11 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 10 15 13 5 -3 -5 -2 0 -2 -4 -4 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 105 90 83 99 79 63 100 130 96 104 94 78 16 43 18 18 281 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.8 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.0 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 146 145 151 157 157 159 158 157 155 155 160 165 165 167 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 5 700-500 MB RH 81 78 77 78 79 75 78 78 79 79 81 81 85 86 89 87 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 11 11 9 8 7 9 10 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 61 59 54 47 54 52 63 46 47 35 40 31 39 48 55 53 75 200 MB DIV 127 114 106 89 63 6 41 0 39 63 95 100 145 174 168 149 102 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -9 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 444 486 502 495 489 421 370 368 400 357 384 441 445 364 233 76 -127 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 10.3 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.5 12.2 11.7 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.7 90.1 90.6 91.1 91.5 92.3 93.1 94.1 95.1 95.9 96.4 96.8 97.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 3 3 2 3 6 9 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 14 15 18 22 26 30 32 34 34 34 37 38 41 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -4. -3. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 21. 22. 23. 23. 26. 29. 32. 32. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 89.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.45 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 20.2% 15.6% 12.9% 0.0% 17.8% 15.8% 13.7% Logistic: 4.6% 32.6% 17.1% 10.5% 0.6% 14.1% 3.7% 26.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 5.8% 18.6% 11.7% 8.0% 0.2% 10.7% 6.6% 13.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##