* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP942025 09/01/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 52 58 60 60 58 56 56 55 54 54 53 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 52 58 60 60 58 45 41 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 38 41 46 50 53 53 51 41 38 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 7 6 9 12 17 18 27 34 33 29 36 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -1 -1 2 3 3 -4 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 21 4 8 354 320 332 263 222 245 252 236 262 283 289 298 297 291 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.0 28.7 28.3 26.7 26.8 29.4 31.9 31.5 31.4 30.4 30.6 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 166 165 165 151 146 130 131 159 172 173 172 170 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 8 6 6 4 3 3 4 4 8 9 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 80 78 77 74 69 68 62 63 61 66 64 62 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 22 38 31 38 55 71 65 53 44 50 52 35 34 36 32 15 200 MB DIV 63 78 79 69 79 53 66 63 77 68 58 65 40 49 50 31 0 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 0 1 -7 2 -2 2 8 4 0 25 24 27 40 28 LAND (KM) 197 185 206 218 258 311 187 194 137 65 -18 -40 -348 -615 -496 -351 -329 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.3 18.9 20.2 21.5 22.7 23.9 25.3 26.6 28.1 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.6 105.7 106.7 107.6 109.4 111.0 112.2 113.0 112.8 111.9 110.2 107.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 7 9 12 14 13 11 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 39 34 29 22 13 8 5 5 19 35 29 14 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. 15. 20. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 14. 10. 5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 22. 28. 30. 30. 28. 26. 26. 25. 24. 24. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 103.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 09/01/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 16.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.78 9.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -11.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 50.4% 39.3% 26.3% 0.0% 45.7% 64.8% 52.9% Logistic: 12.5% 53.7% 37.1% 23.2% 17.0% 51.6% 54.6% 5.8% Bayesian: 2.0% 32.0% 19.0% 6.8% 1.2% 17.3% 10.0% 3.1% Consensus: 9.7% 45.4% 31.8% 18.7% 6.1% 38.2% 43.2% 20.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% SDCON: 5.8% 27.2% 18.4% 10.3% 3.5% 21.1% 24.1% 12.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 09/01/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##