* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP942025 09/01/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 45 52 56 58 56 54 55 54 54 52 52 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 45 52 56 58 56 54 48 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 40 40 39 33 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 9 10 11 11 8 3 6 11 17 23 24 29 24 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 -5 -2 -2 0 3 2 0 5 1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 27 39 52 52 360 355 329 215 256 238 267 261 250 265 285 304 334 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.0 28.3 28.2 26.2 26.8 30.1 31.9 31.6 31.4 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 168 169 166 164 155 147 145 124 131 166 172 172 172 171 170 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 8 5 5 3 4 3 4 4 9 9 13 10 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 83 82 77 74 71 68 64 62 61 59 59 56 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 18 34 40 56 60 72 55 51 45 45 30 37 48 44 41 200 MB DIV 54 64 77 73 82 77 58 89 35 53 43 34 48 27 13 12 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -4 0 -4 0 1 1 3 5 7 -5 7 11 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 280 281 281 290 291 352 296 242 230 135 66 12 -66 -314 -491 -577 -497 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.8 20.3 21.6 22.7 24.1 25.5 27.1 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.8 104.8 105.8 106.8 108.6 110.5 111.9 112.8 113.2 112.8 111.9 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 7 7 8 10 11 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 42 39 35 24 16 9 6 4 5 29 33 33 10 21 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 10. 16. 19. 20. 19. 20. 19. 18. 20. 24. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 27. 31. 33. 31. 29. 30. 29. 29. 28. 27. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 102.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942025 INVEST 09/01/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.96 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.0% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 26.1% 31.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 25.5% 10.0% 5.3% 4.2% 21.5% 58.3% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.9% 3.2% 1.2% 0.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% Consensus: 1.0% 20.8% 11.0% 2.2% 1.7% 16.9% 30.8% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942025 INVEST 09/01/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##