* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 08/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 33 37 44 45 43 38 34 28 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 33 37 44 45 43 38 34 28 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 10 10 9 7 7 7 24 33 39 39 42 42 40 35 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 1 6 1 1 0 0 1 0 -5 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 47 41 27 5 344 322 317 227 221 232 234 238 242 255 243 234 234 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 28.7 27.1 25.5 23.3 23.2 22.0 21.1 19.4 20.5 22.1 22.4 24.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 163 152 136 119 96 94 81 72 60 65 81 84 102 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 1 6 1 700-500 MB RH 79 76 74 71 72 68 62 57 52 45 45 42 44 43 41 40 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 13 11 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 15 17 23 29 20 19 9 9 22 2 -16 -21 3 -12 7 200 MB DIV 70 59 62 42 65 53 34 9 10 -13 -2 -8 -6 -1 -13 -12 16 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -4 -6 -2 2 1 4 1 -1 -4 -9 -6 -5 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 547 576 615 623 564 522 511 511 477 440 373 247 123 0 -125 -250 -348 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.9 21.7 23.5 25.2 27.1 28.8 30.3 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 109.1 110.1 111.0 112.0 113.9 115.8 117.5 118.8 119.4 119.4 118.8 118.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 12 12 13 13 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 28 24 21 15 7 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 10. 14. 15. 13. 9. 5. -1. -7. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 9. 0. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 12. 19. 20. 18. 13. 9. 3. -4. -14. -23. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 107.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 08/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.3% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 5.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 5.1% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 4.5% 4.8% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 08/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##