* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 08/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 30 36 42 46 46 44 40 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 30 36 42 46 46 44 40 34 29 26 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 12 11 10 8 11 7 12 26 34 36 33 37 33 31 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 3 2 1 1 6 3 2 0 -3 2 -5 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 49 48 34 30 3 336 334 296 233 229 228 237 227 248 250 259 223 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 27.2 26.2 24.8 23.1 21.9 21.4 20.7 20.0 29.8 31.6 31.4 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 166 165 161 137 126 111 93 80 74 67 59 161 169 168 168 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 3 3 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 74 72 71 63 61 54 48 47 46 46 45 46 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 10 12 13 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 18 18 22 30 18 8 0 -8 7 -5 -3 -13 24 5 10 200 MB DIV 88 83 85 68 45 57 37 25 16 12 -1 -9 11 -6 -13 -14 -7 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -6 -5 -5 -5 -6 4 1 6 1 0 -4 -5 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 537 533 564 598 572 472 474 453 382 301 244 141 28 -29 50 10 -20 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.1 17.9 19.7 21.3 23.1 24.8 26.4 27.9 29.2 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.1 109.2 110.2 111.2 113.0 114.7 116.2 117.2 117.6 117.5 117.0 116.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 27 23 18 8 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 15 44 44 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 11. 15. 16. 14. 11. 6. 0. -3. -4. -3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 8. 0. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 17. 21. 21. 19. 15. 9. 4. -1. -6. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 08/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 6.4% 6.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 4.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 08/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##