* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 08/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 35 44 48 54 54 52 47 41 32 26 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 35 44 48 54 54 52 47 41 32 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 28 26 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 12 11 12 7 6 6 15 27 31 31 28 25 18 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 4 6 2 1 5 0 2 1 1 -1 3 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 54 47 46 39 36 10 337 349 270 243 234 237 240 240 249 257 219 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.5 27.3 26.4 24.4 22.8 21.7 21.3 20.7 19.9 24.8 24.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 168 167 166 167 161 138 128 106 89 77 73 66 58 108 108 97 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 1 2 1 3 0 4 1 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 79 77 76 70 68 60 55 49 50 47 50 48 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 13 12 12 10 8 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 12 15 17 20 19 17 8 1 0 8 1 -5 -6 3 6 200 MB DIV 83 83 86 86 54 49 55 49 35 29 0 -7 -9 2 -22 -25 -9 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -5 -3 -4 -6 -3 -2 0 1 0 -1 -4 -3 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 519 517 522 515 537 524 409 386 379 315 258 206 106 18 -27 -32 -24 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.7 18.3 20.2 22.0 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.0 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.3 107.3 108.2 109.2 111.0 112.7 114.3 115.7 116.7 117.3 117.1 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 9 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 37 31 26 16 7 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 17. 20. 19. 17. 13. 8. 2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 6. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 23. 29. 29. 27. 22. 16. 7. 1. -6. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 105.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 08/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.32 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.9% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.4% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 6.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 08/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##