* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/15/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 56 56 52 48 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 56 56 52 48 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 55 54 48 41 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 12 15 13 24 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 1 0 4 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 270 206 233 244 237 249 248 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 27.6 27.6 26.6 25.3 23.3 23.1 22.2 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 140 141 130 116 95 92 82 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 60 60 56 53 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 85 80 76 70 64 65 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 37 31 40 23 48 7 -4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -2 1 6 11 9 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 455 469 498 504 529 545 543 566 575 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.1 23.4 24.7 25.7 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.4 116.4 117.9 119.2 120.2 120.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 6. 2. -2. -7. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.6 112.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/15/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.54 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 24.4% 18.2% 14.6% 10.7% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 6.5% 5.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 10.4% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.9% 6.2% 4.4% 3.0% 2.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/15/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##