* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/15/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 45 41 38 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 45 41 38 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 45 42 37 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 6 9 10 11 13 19 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 255 242 238 242 250 228 244 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.7 27.5 27.2 26.3 24.5 23.6 22.8 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 152 139 136 127 108 98 89 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 63 64 61 57 50 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 80 90 89 95 86 74 84 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 34 42 33 40 42 54 18 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -1 0 11 13 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 453 460 492 530 545 610 617 667 717 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.5 23.9 24.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.8 113.7 114.7 115.7 117.6 119.4 120.8 121.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 9 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 11 8 7 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -7. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.2 111.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/15/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.57 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.54 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 21.3% 16.8% 13.7% 10.2% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.2% 3.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.5% 6.7% 4.7% 3.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 4.7% 3.8% 2.8% 2.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/15/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##