* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/15/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 49 49 48 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 49 49 48 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 44 43 39 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 5 10 11 15 13 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 1 1 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 303 258 243 237 252 227 249 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.3 28.2 27.4 27.0 25.0 23.5 23.2 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 146 138 134 114 97 94 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 61 61 56 52 48 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 78 84 95 90 92 84 86 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 55 53 37 23 37 49 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 0 1 0 5 11 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 440 434 455 499 536 586 622 675 754 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.8 22.0 23.3 24.4 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.1 113.0 114.0 115.0 117.0 118.9 120.6 122.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 14 12 9 8 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 111.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/15/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.62 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 32.6% 19.5% 15.6% 11.6% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 7.1% 4.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 13.3% 8.0% 5.5% 4.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.6% 8.1% 4.5% 3.2% 2.5% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/15/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##