* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/14/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 47 46 46 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 47 46 46 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 47 47 45 42 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 2 9 11 11 16 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -2 0 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 2 284 255 255 236 239 226 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.7 29.3 27.9 27.3 25.8 23.8 23.7 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 158 144 137 122 101 98 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 66 62 58 52 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 9 9 9 7 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 72 73 85 101 96 105 90 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 46 59 51 39 26 39 42 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 2 0 1 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 471 448 447 469 522 557 632 678 761 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.4 22.7 23.8 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.2 112.1 113.2 114.3 116.1 118.3 120.1 121.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 11 11 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 12 9 7 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.7 110.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/14/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.77 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 33.8% 20.9% 17.1% 12.8% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.4% 18.3% 12.7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.1% 17.6% 11.3% 6.9% 4.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.5% 10.8% 6.6% 4.4% 3.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/14/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##