* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/14/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 43 43 44 40 35 31 29 27 22 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 43 43 44 40 35 31 29 27 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 40 39 36 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 1 6 11 17 21 33 36 41 41 42 39 47 52 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 3 0 0 0 4 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -6 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 56 45 51 262 244 238 247 231 242 244 239 228 234 243 259 270 271 SST (C) 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.3 26.3 24.0 23.1 21.9 21.9 21.5 20.9 19.2 20.2 20.3 20.9 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 159 156 148 128 104 94 81 79 75 71 62 64 64 70 75 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 5 2 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 66 64 56 51 49 49 46 49 48 51 52 50 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 56 73 74 92 90 88 70 52 33 24 5 0 -15 -4 2 10 200 MB DIV 40 43 50 53 53 31 18 22 24 10 15 38 22 33 17 4 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 2 0 4 9 16 7 6 -2 -7 -5 0 1 5 LAND (KM) 508 499 483 481 500 547 572 544 594 619 581 416 160 -127 -351 -560 -755 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.7 21.1 22.9 24.8 26.4 27.9 29.1 30.8 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.8 111.5 112.4 113.4 115.6 117.6 119.3 120.8 121.7 122.0 121.5 120.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 10 12 13 13 12 10 7 7 11 13 12 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 17 14 12 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 11. 1. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 5. 0. -4. -6. -8. -13. -23. -36. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 110.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/14/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 25.9% 19.8% 16.1% 12.2% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 16.2% 9.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 14.1% 9.7% 6.5% 4.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.4% 8.5% 5.8% 3.7% 2.6% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/14/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##