* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/14/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 33 35 38 39 37 34 29 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 33 35 38 39 37 34 29 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 30 29 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 3 3 5 13 18 28 35 39 45 50 50 52 58 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -2 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 -1 -4 -4 -4 -13 -11 SHEAR DIR 55 53 49 40 355 255 221 227 234 247 238 236 231 235 238 249 251 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.9 27.4 25.2 23.5 23.2 22.2 22.3 21.9 21.2 20.0 21.1 21.0 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 161 157 154 139 116 98 94 82 82 80 74 62 73 72 72 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 70 68 66 60 54 51 49 49 46 44 43 45 45 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 56 68 74 91 97 88 69 81 54 37 8 -19 -25 -9 20 200 MB DIV 61 51 47 44 38 52 20 16 28 19 -11 11 18 33 24 24 22 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -6 0 0 11 9 15 6 3 0 0 -8 0 -3 LAND (KM) 471 542 535 525 526 575 603 624 629 663 675 615 459 224 -31 -287 -510 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.9 20.1 21.5 23.1 24.6 25.8 26.6 27.6 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.2 111.0 111.8 112.7 114.7 116.8 118.7 120.2 121.3 121.7 121.5 120.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 11 9 6 4 7 12 13 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 17 15 9 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 10. 10. 8. 4. -0. -5. -10. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 6. -3. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 4. -1. -5. -9. -14. -22. -34. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 109.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/14/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 21.7% 17.6% 14.1% 0.0% 20.6% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 22.4% 9.8% 5.0% 1.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 14.8% 9.1% 6.4% 0.3% 8.2% 5.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 9.4% 5.5% 3.7% 0.6% 4.6% 3.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/14/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##