* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/14/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 44 45 42 37 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 44 45 42 37 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 32 31 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 6 3 4 3 2 16 22 23 32 35 35 40 39 44 53 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 1 1 2 1 1 3 0 1 5 1 5 4 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 67 65 56 295 280 268 220 235 234 240 245 238 232 238 241 234 237 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.1 29.5 29.0 27.3 25.2 23.7 23.1 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.0 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 166 160 155 138 116 100 93 85 82 80 79 81 82 74 64 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 65 64 59 53 50 48 47 43 41 36 35 34 32 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 54 61 69 78 103 108 87 86 86 101 83 43 26 18 6 14 200 MB DIV 68 57 60 55 25 31 25 7 14 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 5 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 2 10 14 11 3 4 3 2 0 -7 -13 LAND (KM) 367 449 430 431 440 543 604 661 698 781 872 936 965 910 745 432 36 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.5 21.6 22.9 24.3 25.2 25.5 25.3 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.7 110.6 111.5 112.5 114.7 116.9 119.0 120.8 122.3 123.4 124.0 124.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 9 7 4 2 2 6 12 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 19 16 13 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 6. 2. -6. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 12. 7. 1. -5. -12. -18. -25. -35. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.7 108.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/14/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 22.5% 17.8% 14.3% 0.0% 19.6% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 8.5% 3.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 10.4% 7.2% 5.3% 0.1% 6.8% 5.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 6.7% 4.1% 3.1% 0.5% 3.9% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/14/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##