* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/13/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 33 36 39 40 39 34 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 33 36 39 40 39 34 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 29 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 5 4 9 10 15 23 29 34 35 35 38 44 46 49 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -2 1 -2 -5 -7 -2 -10 SHEAR DIR 42 52 12 316 282 271 244 237 249 253 257 249 242 230 229 231 238 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.1 29.6 28.2 26.2 24.3 23.4 22.2 22.2 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.1 20.0 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 170 166 161 147 126 106 97 83 82 76 76 77 73 62 74 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 70 66 61 55 50 47 44 45 42 43 38 39 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 45 49 58 68 82 103 89 85 75 56 36 41 36 16 15 11 200 MB DIV 38 44 27 33 33 44 42 15 21 -9 -6 8 17 18 18 27 35 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 7 4 17 9 9 3 0 0 -3 -8 9 LAND (KM) 294 379 427 408 400 455 513 591 603 649 717 750 736 640 445 192 -126 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.4 21.5 22.7 24.2 25.7 26.8 27.2 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.9 109.7 110.6 111.5 113.5 115.6 117.6 119.5 121.1 122.2 122.8 122.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 9 6 2 3 7 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 21 18 15 10 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 10. 11. 9. 6. 2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 3. -5. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 4. 0. -4. -9. -16. -24. -36. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 107.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/13/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 22.3% 18.0% 14.6% 0.0% 21.0% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 11.4% 4.4% 2.1% 0.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 11.4% 7.5% 5.6% 0.2% 7.5% 6.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/13/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##