* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/13/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 40 46 51 53 54 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 40 46 51 53 54 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 41 44 46 46 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 13 11 7 2 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -3 -1 0 2 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 33 30 23 19 360 352 240 209 225 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.5 30.1 29.9 29.5 28.4 27.4 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 171 170 169 165 163 159 148 136 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 5 5 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 74 74 74 72 74 69 69 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 7 9 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 25 24 31 58 49 59 79 81 84 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 41 27 34 26 13 30 53 68 43 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 77 111 147 185 222 343 306 314 407 461 473 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.1 106.1 106.7 107.4 108.9 110.4 111.6 113.4 114.8 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 7 8 7 6 7 8 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 43 39 36 33 26 19 13 9 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 8. 11. 11. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 18. 19. 16. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 104.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/13/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 22.9% 18.1% 14.7% 11.4% 22.9% 25.4% 48.6% Logistic: 0.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 3.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.6% 8.6% 6.3% 5.0% 3.9% 8.1% 9.5% 16.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.3% 5.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.4% 4.5% 6.2% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/13/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##