* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/12/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 39 43 50 54 60 62 64 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 39 43 50 54 60 62 64 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 40 41 44 47 50 53 55 55 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 17 19 17 15 6 5 8 5 6 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -2 -2 0 1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 33 31 30 34 27 20 87 172 161 186 200 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.4 28.4 26.9 24.9 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 171 171 171 167 165 164 158 148 132 111 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 7 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 77 75 75 75 75 73 72 70 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 10 11 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 8 10 15 21 44 42 69 65 66 66 53 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 27 26 19 23 26 18 68 57 61 40 25 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -5 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 73 79 107 135 168 264 370 362 335 378 408 467 498 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.4 104.4 105.2 106.1 107.6 109.0 110.5 111.8 113.2 114.8 116.3 117.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 46 44 42 39 31 25 18 13 8 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 6. 8. 10. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 15. 19. 25. 27. 29. 27. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 102.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/12/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 19.9% 16.4% 13.4% 10.3% 21.1% 20.3% 42.8% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4% Consensus: 3.5% 7.1% 5.6% 4.5% 3.4% 7.2% 7.7% 15.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.7% 4.5% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 3.6% 4.3% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/12/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##