* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MARIO EP132025 09/12/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 45 49 52 53 53 52 52 52 48 44 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 45 49 52 53 53 52 52 52 48 44 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 46 46 46 44 40 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 17 18 19 16 11 5 1 4 6 12 19 25 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 3 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 28 35 40 41 49 55 51 103 215 258 250 245 244 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.6 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.5 28.1 26.4 24.0 23.1 22.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 172 169 166 164 161 162 158 156 148 144 127 101 90 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 9 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 76 77 73 72 70 71 67 67 63 60 56 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 8 10 16 35 32 53 55 49 56 48 39 27 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 21 9 11 19 17 5 26 72 49 23 18 19 22 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 -2 0 -2 2 0 3 1 4 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 46 67 73 111 138 245 350 371 330 332 353 345 395 371 345 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.2 20.9 21.8 22.8 23.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.4 103.5 104.5 105.5 107.3 108.8 110.2 111.3 112.4 113.5 114.7 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 6 4 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 46 46 44 41 33 26 19 15 10 7 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. 17. 13. 9. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 101.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 MARIO 09/12/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.29 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.40 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 18.4% 15.1% 12.2% 9.2% 19.1% 18.3% 22.4% Logistic: 0.5% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 3.5% 7.7% 5.3% 4.2% 3.2% 6.8% 7.0% 8.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.2% 5.8% 3.6% 2.6% 2.1% 3.9% 5.5% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 MARIO 09/12/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##