* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * THIRTEEN EP132025 09/12/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 40 45 49 51 51 51 51 50 47 43 37 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 40 45 49 51 51 51 51 50 47 43 37 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 34 34 34 33 32 29 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 20 19 21 18 19 11 11 3 5 12 15 21 26 34 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -3 1 0 6 5 1 SHEAR DIR 6 2 18 33 37 46 48 50 58 106 218 238 244 251 246 233 230 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.7 25.7 24.8 23.7 22.9 22.1 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 162 160 156 154 148 144 138 130 119 109 98 90 81 75 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 76 77 76 75 72 72 66 62 57 53 49 44 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 -2 7 5 15 35 30 60 56 50 41 41 37 26 17 -16 200 MB DIV 27 22 25 24 35 30 14 36 58 54 28 3 0 7 13 14 15 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 -1 -1 0 -4 -1 -5 2 4 10 -2 8 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 64 82 115 122 153 214 313 417 395 344 367 333 314 321 357 389 423 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.3 21.4 22.6 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.2 101.3 102.3 103.4 104.6 106.3 107.8 109.3 110.5 111.8 113.2 114.3 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 46 46 43 38 30 23 18 13 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 17. 13. 7. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 100.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 THIRTEEN 09/12/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.28 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.41 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 17.8% 14.0% 11.0% 0.0% 16.9% 16.6% 13.7% Logistic: 0.8% 5.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 1.7% 3.1% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% Consensus: 3.2% 8.1% 5.2% 3.9% 0.1% 6.2% 6.6% 6.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 5.5% 3.1% 2.4% 0.5% 3.6% 4.3% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 THIRTEEN 09/12/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##