* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * THIRTEEN EP132025 09/12/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 56 60 61 60 59 58 57 54 51 47 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 48 56 60 61 60 59 58 57 54 51 47 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 46 47 47 46 45 43 40 36 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 15 17 13 18 15 14 12 8 5 7 12 19 23 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 6 8 SHEAR DIR 40 14 19 36 43 44 55 55 78 105 169 220 217 236 245 247 235 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.8 25.7 24.7 23.6 23.0 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 162 161 157 155 152 146 143 137 131 119 109 97 91 86 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 10 7 8 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 76 77 79 76 75 74 73 67 68 60 58 51 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -1 3 0 16 17 34 29 41 59 43 56 36 25 15 1 -5 200 MB DIV 39 30 23 21 22 18 31 26 36 80 44 14 12 -3 9 7 9 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 2 -2 9 2 6 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 86 84 104 132 131 202 270 344 460 392 322 338 326 318 272 287 407 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.5 18.8 19.5 20.6 21.6 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.1 100.2 101.3 102.3 103.4 105.4 107.0 108.3 109.8 110.9 111.9 113.0 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 53 49 47 46 45 41 34 28 21 17 12 8 5 5 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 26. 30. 31. 30. 29. 28. 27. 24. 21. 17. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 99.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132025 THIRTEEN 09/12/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.43 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 21.8% 17.1% 13.7% 0.0% 20.4% 18.9% 17.5% Logistic: 3.0% 17.7% 7.2% 3.9% 2.0% 8.0% 11.3% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 2.4% 3.0% 5.5% Consensus: 4.7% 14.8% 8.3% 5.9% 0.8% 10.2% 11.1% 12.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.8% 9.9% 5.1% 3.4% 0.9% 5.6% 7.5% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132025 THIRTEEN 09/12/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##