* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP952025 09/11/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 55 60 64 64 61 60 60 58 55 52 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 55 60 64 64 61 60 60 58 55 52 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 37 40 44 47 48 48 46 44 43 39 35 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 9 13 15 17 17 15 13 9 4 5 7 16 20 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 -1 0 -1 -2 1 0 0 1 2 1 2 2 8 9 SHEAR DIR 29 36 14 19 25 34 48 43 59 89 156 185 206 214 247 255 243 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.4 25.4 24.6 23.7 23.2 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 163 162 160 156 153 149 143 136 127 116 108 98 91 86 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 9 8 8 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 77 76 77 76 75 74 72 67 63 60 55 54 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 4 7 7 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -3 0 7 1 9 19 32 38 59 62 60 40 26 23 8 7 200 MB DIV 41 40 32 32 22 31 37 39 44 49 49 18 21 -5 -7 5 5 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 2 1 6 1 6 0 6 LAND (KM) 95 91 69 91 121 176 237 329 426 402 413 456 420 435 393 393 418 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 49 46 46 42 37 30 22 17 12 7 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 25. 30. 34. 34. 31. 30. 30. 28. 25. 22. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 98.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 09/11/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.45 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 19.8% 16.3% 13.2% 0.0% 20.1% 18.7% 16.8% Logistic: 1.5% 9.3% 3.7% 1.8% 0.7% 4.5% 7.0% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.7% 7.2% Consensus: 3.9% 12.1% 7.0% 5.1% 0.3% 8.5% 9.1% 11.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.4% 8.0% 4.5% 3.0% 0.6% 4.7% 6.5% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 09/11/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##