* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP952025 09/11/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 31 38 48 58 64 67 67 66 65 62 59 54 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 31 38 48 58 64 67 67 66 65 62 59 54 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 37 39 39 38 37 35 31 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 10 12 11 14 10 11 5 5 8 9 11 20 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 1 0 3 -1 0 1 0 -2 0 0 5 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 33 33 36 36 28 52 50 59 35 43 118 193 238 200 225 236 242 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.2 24.4 23.5 22.5 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 163 163 159 155 150 145 140 133 125 114 105 96 87 76 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 7 9 6 6 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 76 78 75 75 71 70 67 64 56 54 48 48 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 6 8 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 4 14 8 4 19 28 33 39 48 61 50 54 28 14 1 9 200 MB DIV 53 55 36 25 11 21 44 34 19 29 49 30 8 21 1 5 3 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 2 7 8 3 LAND (KM) 105 73 57 91 102 162 279 394 404 383 423 476 493 503 464 461 543 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 10 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 55 51 47 46 46 41 32 24 19 14 10 7 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 13. 23. 33. 39. 42. 42. 41. 40. 37. 34. 29. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 98.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 09/11/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.44 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 7.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 5.6% 15.5% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% Consensus: 0.3% 9.3% 5.9% 0.4% 0.1% 8.0% 11.0% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.1% 6.1% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 4.5% 8.0% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 09/11/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##