* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP952025 09/11/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 34 41 47 52 53 53 53 53 52 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 34 41 47 52 53 53 53 53 52 49 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 27 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 11 8 13 13 15 13 8 8 6 9 10 17 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 0 1 0 2 -1 -2 0 2 -1 1 2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 44 36 33 41 25 27 34 45 63 71 79 152 187 193 195 224 229 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.0 25.2 24.6 23.6 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 162 162 160 156 153 149 143 139 133 123 113 107 98 83 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 7 9 7 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 75 76 77 77 76 72 70 67 62 58 55 51 46 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 4 2 -1 -7 10 20 26 33 44 53 53 34 18 9 -2 200 MB DIV 95 62 44 31 18 10 32 60 42 50 46 23 14 3 1 2 3 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 3 1 5 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 185 167 127 133 146 172 267 366 462 457 447 469 489 500 521 457 425 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 9 8 8 7 7 9 9 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 51 47 46 43 38 31 23 18 14 10 6 5 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 27. 24. 21. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 98.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 09/11/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.44 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 19.6% 8.4% 4.8% 1.2% 13.4% 11.1% 11.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 2.5% 4.1% Consensus: 0.5% 13.9% 8.1% 1.6% 0.4% 11.2% 10.6% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 7.4% 4.5% 0.8% 0.2% 6.1% 6.3% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 09/11/25 06 UTC ##