* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP952025 09/11/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 56 59 61 60 59 59 58 56 53 48 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 56 59 61 60 59 59 58 56 53 48 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 38 42 44 46 47 47 46 45 42 38 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 12 10 11 12 16 13 11 13 12 11 9 11 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 2 -1 0 2 0 -1 1 4 0 -1 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 37 40 31 31 20 13 19 38 60 51 52 96 149 190 180 202 210 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.5 25.7 25.0 24.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 161 161 162 162 159 154 151 146 143 138 128 119 111 102 92 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 9 6 8 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 75 76 80 79 79 75 74 70 68 60 58 52 49 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 1 0 3 1 1 14 31 36 37 48 47 32 8 10 2 200 MB DIV 93 95 73 52 48 23 46 54 53 50 47 18 9 1 10 -2 4 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 0 1 -4 -1 -2 -3 -3 1 0 4 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 245 215 209 186 167 195 261 329 432 515 485 464 516 519 548 515 476 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 9 9 8 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 47 50 50 48 46 41 35 26 21 18 12 8 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 27. 28. 27. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 26. 29. 31. 30. 29. 29. 28. 26. 23. 18. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 97.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 09/11/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.42 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.36 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 29.8% 19.3% 15.2% 0.0% 23.4% 21.1% 25.8% Logistic: 6.1% 40.3% 21.3% 15.0% 4.1% 34.9% 26.4% 22.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 28.5% 11.2% 3.3% 0.2% 17.1% 15.6% 10.0% Consensus: 6.0% 32.8% 17.3% 11.1% 1.4% 25.1% 21.0% 19.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.5% 19.4% 10.1% 6.0% 1.2% 12.5% 11.0% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 09/11/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##