* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP952025 09/10/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 25 30 38 49 58 63 67 71 72 72 69 65 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 25 30 38 49 58 63 67 71 72 72 69 65 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 24 27 30 33 35 38 39 37 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 14 13 14 13 13 17 15 10 2 5 16 21 27 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 7 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 1 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 28 32 34 25 17 7 25 28 40 49 32 42 214 238 235 233 224 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.3 25.8 24.2 22.9 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 161 162 161 161 161 160 158 155 147 137 122 105 91 79 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 8 7 9 8 9 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 77 78 79 80 78 76 73 71 67 64 58 54 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 9 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 0 3 7 2 6 0 7 18 37 31 62 54 37 39 29 200 MB DIV 74 84 75 95 74 37 35 45 29 41 45 3 18 16 12 17 3 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 1 3 2 1 -1 -2 0 -1 4 2 4 1 2 -2 LAND (KM) 303 242 214 185 174 145 143 147 153 180 284 281 264 320 400 379 416 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.8 97.6 98.3 98.9 100.2 101.5 103.0 104.7 106.4 108.2 110.1 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 37 43 49 52 50 47 46 42 37 29 20 11 5 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 37. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 10. 18. 29. 38. 43. 47. 51. 52. 52. 49. 45. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 95.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 09/10/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 8.7% 2.8% 1.3% 0.3% 8.7% 25.8% 27.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.7% 8.4% Consensus: 0.2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 3.0% 9.2% 12.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.1% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 6.1% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 09/10/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##