* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP952025 09/10/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 30 38 47 53 58 64 68 71 72 70 67 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 30 38 47 53 58 64 68 71 72 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 21 24 27 31 34 36 36 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 22 21 19 17 15 12 12 17 17 14 10 6 11 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 1 4 4 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 6 2 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 35 30 35 36 35 16 1 9 19 36 39 36 45 134 189 195 205 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.6 27.4 25.6 24.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 157 157 158 159 159 159 160 160 158 157 152 140 121 107 93 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 5 8 5 9 7 11 7 8 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 76 77 75 76 78 78 81 79 78 72 73 68 66 58 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 -1 -7 -4 -3 -3 1 7 7 22 40 56 57 69 57 62 200 MB DIV 61 66 75 50 64 62 42 30 35 28 47 37 16 19 22 14 4 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 408 376 333 322 292 263 222 195 186 160 157 213 346 272 385 515 634 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.1 97.0 97.7 98.3 99.3 100.3 101.3 102.6 103.9 105.3 107.0 109.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 11 13 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 31 34 39 46 48 47 46 44 41 34 24 11 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 10. 18. 27. 33. 38. 44. 48. 51. 52. 50. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 95.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 09/10/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3% 13.6% 20.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% Consensus: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 4.5% 7.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 09/10/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##