* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP952025 09/09/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 27 33 38 46 51 56 61 65 66 68 67 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 27 33 38 46 51 56 61 65 66 68 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 24 27 31 35 37 37 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 20 21 15 17 11 12 16 18 22 21 18 4 0 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 5 3 3 -1 -1 -1 1 1 4 5 9 5 SHEAR DIR 36 31 26 28 30 22 16 26 27 28 37 26 39 45 51 211 224 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.1 26.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 157 158 160 160 160 160 160 159 159 158 155 147 129 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 9 9 10 8 7 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 78 75 79 78 79 78 75 72 70 66 66 62 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 5 6 6 7 8 10 12 13 13 13 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -5 1 0 -10 3 -1 3 3 16 11 19 40 58 55 47 38 200 MB DIV 52 57 54 53 36 62 30 40 24 9 47 34 16 7 24 16 10 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 2 1 2 0 0 0 -1 2 1 7 5 7 LAND (KM) 343 393 371 318 294 245 214 168 153 162 135 153 169 280 255 299 379 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.8 95.7 96.5 97.2 98.5 99.5 100.5 101.5 102.5 103.5 104.7 106.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 10 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 30 32 34 44 50 49 47 46 45 42 38 29 17 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 45. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 6. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 26. 31. 36. 41. 45. 46. 48. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 93.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 09/09/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 3.3% 13.2% 24.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 4.4% 8.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 09/09/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##