* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/04/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 37 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 43 37 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 43 38 34 31 26 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 22 23 26 30 30 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -1 1 -3 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 232 219 214 209 203 214 211 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 102 102 103 106 106 107 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 52 53 50 47 44 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 14 12 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 28 34 32 6 -15 -29 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 53 52 22 18 5 -5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 2 0 -1 0 0 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 249 251 230 194 159 112 87 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 114.8 114.9 114.7 114.6 114.4 114.6 114.6 114.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -24. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -22. -27. -32. -37. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.4 114.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/04/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.20 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.16 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.48 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/04/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##