* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/04/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 47 41 38 33 30 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 53 47 41 38 33 30 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 54 49 45 41 36 31 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 21 25 27 31 32 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -2 -1 0 0 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 240 226 221 222 205 206 200 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.5 24.6 24.6 25.5 26.5 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 110 105 106 106 115 125 143 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 4 3 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 56 53 54 51 50 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 14 14 11 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 23 26 33 14 -6 -30 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 38 58 51 21 10 11 -8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 217 225 235 193 152 64 6 -50 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.2 26.7 27.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.4 114.6 114.5 114.3 113.9 113.5 113.2 113.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -22. -27. -30. -34. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.0 114.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/04/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.16 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.16 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.52 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 7.3% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/04/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##