* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/04/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 60 56 49 44 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 60 56 49 35 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 65 60 56 48 35 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 21 25 24 26 29 38 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 231 234 224 226 221 210 213 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 25.5 24.9 24.9 24.9 26.3 28.0 29.3 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 116 110 110 110 124 142 155 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 59 55 54 48 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 15 15 12 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 23 21 14 19 7 -9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 31 40 57 51 14 12 -5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 7 2 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 187 182 195 184 130 12 -52 11 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.6 27.6 28.5 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.8 114.1 114.1 114.0 113.6 113.2 112.9 112.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 4 4 7 22 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -14. -21. -26. -30. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.7 113.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/04/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 -2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.36 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 11.3% 9.2% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 3.8% 3.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/04/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##