* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/03/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 73 69 61 50 35 34 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 73 69 61 50 35 36 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 73 73 70 66 56 45 33 33 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 12 18 22 23 25 35 35 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 217 222 227 237 237 223 218 213 229 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 26.7 25.4 24.9 24.8 25.7 27.7 29.9 31.2 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 129 116 110 108 118 139 162 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 3 2 3 4 6 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 64 64 60 55 52 45 41 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 18 17 12 3 4 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 44 33 32 36 34 23 7 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 46 48 35 44 55 39 7 -31 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 6 6 7 2 -1 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 202 202 184 193 123 46 -56 25 -65 -266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.7 26.5 27.8 28.3 29.3 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.9 113.6 113.8 114.1 114.1 114.0 113.3 112.6 111.5 110.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 6 4 6 5 5 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 4 3 3 4 6 26 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -17. -24. -28. -32. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -21. -22. -20. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. -1. -9. -20. -35. -36. -34. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.5 112.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/03/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.25 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.74 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 21.0% 16.4% 13.3% 9.8% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.5% 3.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.9% 4.1% 3.3% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/03/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##