* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/03/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 74 76 71 63 49 38 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 74 76 71 63 44 34 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 73 72 64 53 38 31 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 13 15 20 26 33 37 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 1 4 2 4 2 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 244 225 220 237 232 225 211 218 222 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.0 25.7 24.8 25.4 25.9 28.1 31.0 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 144 132 119 109 115 120 144 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 3 2 3 2 4 4 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 65 66 59 54 49 40 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 18 21 20 16 8 3 5 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 61 65 48 32 35 39 23 19 4 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 49 46 71 49 86 31 -1 -11 -18 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 4 7 5 0 -3 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 150 180 180 172 176 175 68 -50 -25 -21 -224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.1 25.2 26.3 27.4 28.3 29.4 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.9 112.7 113.2 113.7 114.1 114.1 113.7 113.2 112.1 110.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 6 6 6 6 5 6 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 6 5 4 3 3 4 11 37 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -19. -24. -27. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. -1. -11. -20. -17. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 11. 6. -2. -16. -27. -25. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.0 111.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/03/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.36 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.7% 27.2% 20.2% 16.7% 12.6% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.5% 10.1% 7.1% 5.7% 4.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 14.7% 10.0% 6.0% 5.3% 5.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/03/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##