* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/03/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 73 78 81 81 76 64 45 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 67 73 78 81 81 76 64 42 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 67 72 75 77 75 65 53 38 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 6 9 16 19 20 25 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 1 3 2 5 10 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 306 287 248 230 241 235 226 213 220 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 28.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 25.7 25.2 26.3 28.7 30.1 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 153 146 145 144 119 113 125 149 163 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 72 70 68 65 59 55 48 40 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 19 19 20 20 19 13 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 65 74 74 61 40 36 32 14 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 62 54 47 59 48 50 23 3 -30 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 5 0 1 8 6 3 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 248 197 208 224 216 162 155 60 -46 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 24.2 25.3 26.2 27.3 28.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.9 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.6 113.7 113.4 112.8 112.4 112.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 14 10 8 5 4 4 4 10 28 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -3. -16. -18. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 16. 4. -15. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.7 110.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/03/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.51 10.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 9.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -10.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 11.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.9% 55.9% 47.3% 42.1% 26.6% 24.6% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 14.1% 18.5% 9.5% 6.6% 2.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.7% 25.3% 19.1% 16.3% 9.5% 8.8% 5.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 36.0% 24.0% 21.0% 20.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 23.3% 30.6% 21.5% 18.6% 14.7% 5.9% 3.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/03/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##