* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/03/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 73 81 88 95 92 78 57 45 42 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 64 73 81 88 95 92 78 52 46 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 64 73 79 84 88 80 66 47 43 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 3 3 8 15 21 25 32 33 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 2 1 4 1 5 7 1 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 342 311 285 191 232 229 246 238 247 255 272 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.4 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.2 25.3 25.7 28.0 30.1 30.9 30.9 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 160 151 147 144 134 114 119 143 164 169 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 4 4 8 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 72 70 67 62 58 54 48 40 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 18 19 21 21 17 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 68 64 76 75 51 43 36 27 19 0 21 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 76 62 55 61 42 47 16 24 -8 -39 -29 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 5 4 0 6 6 1 -1 2 4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 359 265 211 216 239 191 156 113 -29 53 -57 -173 -257 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.8 27.9 28.8 29.6 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.2 111.1 111.7 112.4 113.3 113.7 113.4 112.8 112.0 111.2 110.4 109.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 9 8 8 7 5 6 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 18 13 10 8 5 4 4 7 34 36 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. -8. -14. -14. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 9. 1. -4. -8. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 26. 33. 40. 37. 23. 2. -10. -13. -16. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.8 109.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/03/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.58 17.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 16.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.78 16.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -16.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 15.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 10.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 5.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 6.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 61.0% 82.2% 75.1% 72.0% 47.3% 62.0% 23.3% 0.0% Logistic: 35.5% 52.9% 37.7% 34.1% 13.3% 21.0% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.7% 6.6% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 34.4% 47.2% 38.9% 35.9% 20.4% 27.9% 8.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 52.0% 44.0% 34.0% 31.0% 21.0% 14.0% 7.0% 0.0% SDCON: 43.2% 45.6% 36.4% 33.4% 20.7% 20.9% 7.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/03/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##